Dow futures edged lower on Thursday, as investors weighed mixed corporate earnings and macroeconomic headwinds, including heightened US-China trade tensions and new energy-related sanctions on Russia.
IBM’s earnings weighed on the market early on, and oil prices jumped after the US and EU rolled out new restrictions on Russian exports.
Investors are staying cautious, awaiting key inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to be released amid the ongoing federal government shutdown.
All in all, futures are showing uncertainty as markets try to make sense of shifting global conditions.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. US President Donald Trump has rolled out tough new sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, marking a major shift in policy as the war in Ukraine continues.
The announcement immediately pushed global oil prices up by about 3–5%, with traders expecting supply issues.
Indian refiners, meanwhile, are already re-evaluating their contracts, worried that Russian supply could soon get cut off.
The goal of these sanctions is to squeeze off funding for Russia’s military efforts, and Washington has warned that more actions could follow if the war doesn’t stop.
India is now expected to sharply reduce its imports of Russian oil, which could lead to higher energy costs at home.
2. Tesla’s third-quarter earnings missed Wall Street expectations, posting adjusted earnings of $0.50 per share versus the anticipated $0.54.
Despite record revenue of $28.1 billion, boosted by buyers rushing in ahead of the expiration of federal EV tax credits, profit margins contracted sharply, partly due to higher costs and decreasing regulatory credit revenue.
Shares fell about 3% in after-hours trading as analysts flagged continued margin pressures and a challenging demand outlook ahead.
CEO Elon Musk highlighted progress on the company’s robotaxi initiative but warned of cost headwinds and slowing growth.
3. The US government shutdown entered its 23rd day on Thursday, with about 60,000 aviation safety and air traffic employees already working without pay.
With the shutdown now in its third week, most of them haven’t been paid since mid-October, and they have already lost a couple of days’ wages and might not get paid at all if this keeps dragging on.
Union leaders say some workers have started taking on side gigs like Uber or DoorDash after their shifts just to cover bills. Many are worried that things could get a lot worse if Congress doesn’t break the budget stalemate soon.
4. The market is eagerly awaiting Friday’s CPI inflation data release, which is running late due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Economists largely expect the report to show core inflation steady at 3.1% year-on-year and a monthly rise of 0.3%, figures signaling continued price pressures from recent tariffs and higher goods costs.
With the Fed’s October 29 meeting coming up, markets are already betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Analysts say the upcoming report could lock in that dovish stance, unless inflation comes in hotter than expected. If the numbers surprise either way, expect some volatility.
5. Asian markets fell for the most part on Thursday, weighed down by weak tech earnings and rising geopolitical tensions.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 1.35% as investors worried about new US–China export limits and broader risks tied to US sanctions on Russia and China.
Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks were also down about 0.4% on fears of more US trade restrictions.
Over in Europe, the picture was mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 inched up 0.32%, helped by strong results in defense, aerospace, and luxury names.
Germany’s DAX, however, dropped 0.21%, while London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.62%, supported by strength in select sectors despite the broader uncertainty.
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